作者：蒋义宏,湛瑞峰
摘要/Abstract
本文以2001－2004年度所有沪市上市公司为样本，建立多变量Logistic回归模型，控制了行业因素和公司规模，实证检验了未预期盈余、审计报告类型、公司业绩、资产负债比率、会计师事务所变更、是否亏损、是否ST等多个因素对上市公司年报披露绝对及时性和相对及时性的影响。研究结果发现，未预期盈余为正的年报、被出具标准审计意见的年报以及业绩好的年报披露较早；未预期盈余为负的年报、被出具非标准审计意见的年报以及业绩差的年报披露较晚。当年会计师事务所变更的公司和亏损公司年报披露较晚。在变更年报预约披露日期的公司中，未预期盈余为正的公司、被出具标准审计意见的公司以及业绩好的公司通常提前披露年报；未预期盈余为负的公司、被出具非标准审计意见的公司以及业绩差的公司通常推迟披露年报。
Collecting all listed companies of Shanghai stock market from 2001 to 2004 as the samples and controlling the factors such as the industry and the size, this paper makes the positive analysis on the relationship between the unexpected earnings, audit report, the performance of the companies, whether suffering the loss, CPA switches, ST, financial distress and so on and the absolute timeliness and the relative timeliness of the annual financial reports through the multivariable Logistic Regression Model. The findings discover, the annual financial reports with positive unexpected earnings, standard unqualified audit report and good performance are usually disclosed earlier; On the contrary, the annual financial reports with negative unexpected earnings, non- standard unqualified audit report and bad performance are usually disclosed later. The listed companies that switch the CPAs and that suffer from loss tend to disclose the annual financial reports later. Among the listed companies that modify the scheduled disclosure date, the annual financial reports with positive unexpected earnings, standard unqualified audit report and good performance are inclined to be ahead of schedule; On the contrary, the annual financial reports with negative unexpected earnings, non- standard unqualified audit report and bad performance are inclined to be behind schedule.