作者：范宗辉，王静静
关键字：关键词：证券分析师跟踪，盈余平滑，盈余操纵，盈余反应系数
摘要/Abstract
本文以Leuz, Nanda and Wysocki(2003,JFE)模型和会计信息的价值相关性模型为基础，探讨了影响分析师对于上市公司选择的决定因素以及分析师市场的形成对幼稚模型适用性的影响。本文研究发现分析师能够有效的区分出盈余平滑和盈余操纵公司，并且更偏好于选择盈余平滑以及盈余操纵较少的公司。同时本文从实证的角度表明，分析师市场形成之后，幼稚模型对于有较多分析师跟踪的公司不再适用，投资者会把分析师的预测作为公司的盈余预测的主要依据；而对于那些没有分析师跟踪或者虽然有分析师跟踪但是人数不多的公司而言，幼稚模型仍然是适用的。
This paper discusses the factors that affect analysts' following the listed companies and how the analyst market affect the Naive Model, based on Leuz, Nanda and Wysocki(2003,JFE) model and the value relevance of accounting information model. The paper discovers that analysts can effectively distinguish earnings smoothing and earnings manipulation companies and also prefer to choose earnings smoothing or little earnings manipulation companies. From the empirical angel, the paper indicates that Naive Mode will not be adequate for the companies followed by many analysts after that the analyst market is mature and investors will take the analysts' forecasts as the main basis of his forecasts. However, the Native model is still adapted to those companies followed by no or little analysts.